Thanks for watching this video, recorded Wednsday, January 20, 2016, which addresses the mid to long-term technical outlook for the SP-500 futures market. So you know, this market is covered in my both daily SP-500 futures letter and in every issue of my Monthly Futures Wrap, providing detailed mid to long-term analysis in over 20 other popular US futures markets. The Monthly Futures Wrap is only $30.00/month, and if you’d like a two week free trial it or my daily sp-500 futures letter merely reply to the email that delivered this video with some sort of an affirmative response. I’ll be happy to set you up immediately; I’ll then follow-up 2 weeks later to inquire into your possible subscription interest. Now, on to the SP-500 futures market:
A little backdrop that most of my long-term subscribers are familiar with. Back in Feb of 2013 a long-term, 3-5 year buy signal emerged following a monthly settlement above a decade long horizontal channel formation then at 1502.50, now at 1456.50 for the month of January 2016, this buy signal indicating a doubling of this formation over the following 3-5 years to what I term: the double channel extension – currently at 2355.00 for the month of January. We’re just about 3 years into this 3-5 year buy signal, and as you’re well aware we have, for the last 18 months or so, been locked in a congestive, two-sided pattern, characterized by many weeks of directionless, low-volatility trade punctuated with an occasional downward spike – usually caused by an international scare, the most notable being an Oct 2014 west African Ebola virus, and most recently indications of a slowing Chinese economy.
The dynamic through 2016 remains bullish above two formations. The first we tested a week ago, that is the 2nd week of January, at 1864.00. This monthly channel bottom spans nearly 7 years of upward activity. Anyone who subscribes to my Daily SP-500 futures letter know that I use the more focused weekly chart formation, but I’m using the monthly chart in this video so the analysis you’re viewing retains a certain degree of relevance into the later 1st qtr 2016. Continued monthly settlements above the 1864.00 formation, which rises to 1879.75 in Feb, and to 1895.25 in Mar, should yield upward retracement over the next 2-3 months into the 2117.50 – 2148.50 region, these horizontal formations changing to 2121.25 – 2150.25 in Feb, and to 2124.75 – 2152.00 in March, able to absorb quarterly buying pressures when tested, and a meaningful upside continuation region into later 2016. In a nutshell, a monthly or even weekly settlement above the 2150.25 formation indicates a test within 5-8 months of the long-term 2355.00 target illustrated earlier in this video.
Downside, a monthly or even weekly settlement below the 1864.00 formation indicates a continued collapse over the following 3-5 weeks, possibly within 1-2 weeks, to the long-term 1/3 speedline projected off the 2009 low, currently at 1751.00 for the month of January. Any long-term subscribers are familiar with my preference for speedline analysis in long-term trend identification. Essentially, holding above the 1/3 ascending speedline maintains the upward thrust of a long-term bull trend. This indicator is capable of containing selling not only through 2016, but also through the balance of the decade, above which the 2355.00 long-term objective remains an 18-24 month reality. On the other hand, a monthly settlement below the 1751.00 speedline, which rises to 1764.25 in Feb, and to 1777.50 in Mar would tip the SP-500 into a 1-2 year bear trend, the 1586.75, 2007 high then expected within several months, the 1456.50 formation within 8-12 months, and potentially the 2/3 speed line currently at 1209.25 within 12-18 months. You can be sure that a monthly settlement below the 1751.00 speedline, something I do not expect in 2016, would nevertheless inspire me to record another SP-500 video updating you on these downside objectives.
That’s about it, please call or email with questions, and please stay tuned for futures analysis videos. I’m Cary Artac, and thanks for watching.