Uncategorized

07 Feb

Corn Futures Analysis Video

Hi, I’m Cary Artac, founder and chief analyst of Artac Advisory. Thanks for watching this video, recorded Thursday, February 4, 2016, which addresses the mid to long-term technical outlook in the CBOT Corn futures markets. So you know, I analyze this market on a daily basis through my Daily Corn letter. This market’s long-term outlook is also covered in every issue of my Monthly Futures Wrap, providing detailed mid to long-term analysis in over 20 popular US futures markets. If you’d like a two week free trial in either or both letters merely reply fill out the free trial form on my website (www.ArtacAdvisory.com)

This volume-based rollover continuation chart captures the corn futures market from essentially the August 2012 high to the present first week of February 2016, and as of this recording reflects the March, 2016 contract. In a few weeks the July 2016 contract will possess the greater corn complex volume, and at that point will be the contract reflected on this chart. In other words, the forecasted levels provided in this video can be used for your July contract trading and hedging, though my suggestion would be that, a month or two from now, you should tune into my Daily July Corn letter or the MFR for continued clarity.

Following the two-year sell off on the heels of the August 2012 high, we have for the last 18 months been floundering between the 318.25 to 454.25 extremes. With the exception of last summer’s short-lived rally, the majority of the last 18 months can be characterized as low volatility congestion. A noteworthy development over this time horizon has been a November 2015 sell signal below an ascending channel bottom currently at 389.25 for the month of February, setting up what I consider to be a 3 to 5 month downside objective to 309.50, a 10-year horizontal channel formation, formed by projecting the angle of the 2008 and 2012 highs off the 2005 low. My very recent nearer-term analysis illustrated on a daily corn letter shows a 2-3 week buy signal currently at play above the mid 360.00’s, the 389.25 – 393.75 region in reach over the next several weeks. Nonetheless, it should be noted that given the longer-term bearish dynamic below 389.25 – 393.75 this near-term rally is prone to failure. In a nutshell, not until we post a weekly settlement above the 389.25 – 393.75 region can we expect a bullish environment into late spring / early summer, for holding below 389.25 maintains a heavy dynamic over this time horizon, long-term support at 309.50 a realistic summer 2016 target where the broader Corn complex can bottom out not only for the year, but also the balance of the decade.

This heavy long-term dynamic does neutralize following a weekly settlement above the 389.25 – 393.75 region, these formations gradually changing in value as we push into spring trade. In a nutshell, a buy signal settlement above the 389.25 – 393.75 formations indicates 3-5 months bullish continuation into the 468.25 – 471.00 region, where the Corn market can top out into next year. This upper area also represents a significant upside acceleration point, with a weekly settlement above the 468.25 – 471.00 formations likely to elicit an accelerated bullish tempo not unlike that of the 2008 and 2010 rallies. But were not there yet; and if so you can bet I’ll reach out with another video outlining big-picture upside objectives.

Please stay tuned for other upcoming market advisory videos. I’m Cary Artac, and thanks for watching.

01 Feb

SP-500 Mid To Long-Term Analysis

SP-500 Futures Analysis – January 2016 from Cary Artac on Vimeo.

Thanks for watching this video, recorded Wednsday, January 20, 2016, which addresses the mid to long-term technical outlook for the SP-500 futures market. So you know, this market is covered in my both daily SP-500 futures letter and in every issue of my Monthly Futures Wrap, providing detailed mid to long-term analysis in over 20 other popular US futures markets. The Monthly Futures Wrap is only $30.00/month, and if you’d like a two week free trial it or my daily sp-500 futures letter merely reply to the email that delivered this video with some sort of an affirmative response. I’ll be happy to set you up immediately; I’ll then follow-up 2 weeks later to inquire into your possible subscription interest. Now, on to the SP-500 futures market:

A little backdrop that most of my long-term subscribers are familiar with. Back in Feb of 2013 a long-term, 3-5 year buy signal emerged following a monthly settlement above a decade long horizontal channel formation then at 1502.50, now at 1456.50 for the month of January 2016, this buy signal indicating a doubling of this formation over the following 3-5 years to what I term: the double channel extension – currently at 2355.00 for the month of January. We’re just about 3 years into this 3-5 year buy signal, and as you’re well aware we have, for the last 18 months or so, been locked in a congestive, two-sided pattern, characterized by many weeks of directionless, low-volatility trade punctuated with an occasional downward spike – usually caused by an international scare, the most notable being an Oct 2014 west African Ebola virus, and most recently indications of a slowing Chinese economy.

The dynamic through 2016 remains bullish above two formations. The first we tested a week ago, that is the 2nd week of January, at 1864.00. This monthly channel bottom spans nearly 7 years of upward activity. Anyone who subscribes to my Daily SP-500 futures letter know that I use the more focused weekly chart formation, but I’m using the monthly chart in this video so the analysis you’re viewing retains a certain degree of relevance into the later 1st qtr 2016. Continued monthly settlements above the 1864.00 formation, which rises to 1879.75 in Feb, and to 1895.25 in Mar, should yield upward retracement over the next 2-3 months into the 2117.50 – 2148.50 region, these horizontal formations changing to 2121.25 – 2150.25 in Feb, and to 2124.75 – 2152.00 in March, able to absorb quarterly buying pressures when tested, and a meaningful upside continuation region into later 2016. In a nutshell, a monthly or even weekly settlement above the 2150.25 formation indicates a test within 5-8 months of the long-term 2355.00 target illustrated earlier in this video.

Downside, a monthly or even weekly settlement below the 1864.00 formation indicates a continued collapse over the following 3-5 weeks, possibly within 1-2 weeks, to the long-term 1/3 speedline projected off the 2009 low, currently at 1751.00 for the month of January. Any long-term subscribers are familiar with my preference for speedline analysis in long-term trend identification. Essentially, holding above the 1/3 ascending speedline maintains the upward thrust of a long-term bull trend. This indicator is capable of containing selling not only through 2016, but also through the balance of the decade, above which the 2355.00 long-term objective remains an 18-24 month reality. On the other hand, a monthly settlement below the 1751.00 speedline, which rises to 1764.25 in Feb, and to 1777.50 in Mar would tip the SP-500 into a 1-2 year bear trend, the 1586.75, 2007 high then expected within several months, the 1456.50 formation within 8-12 months, and potentially the 2/3 speed line currently at 1209.25 within 12-18 months. You can be sure that a monthly settlement below the 1751.00 speedline, something I do not expect in 2016, would nevertheless inspire me to record another SP-500 video updating you on these downside objectives.

That’s about it, please call or email with questions, and please stay tuned for futures analysis videos. I’m Cary Artac, and thanks for watching.

01 Feb

Shanghai Composite Index mid to long-term technical analysis

Shanghai Composite Analysis January 2016 from Cary Artac on Vimeo.

The video above was recorded on Tuesday, January 12, 2015 examines the Shanghai composite index. The text below is essentially the exact verbiage you’ll hear in the video. The Shanghai has once again grabbed front page financial headlines over the last week or two following less than stellar manufacturing data out of China, sending the index back into price territory not traded since last September, which has helped drag the US market down in similar fashion. I’ll also be taking a brief look at the FXI, the ishares China large-cap ETF, a rough tradable equivalent to the Shanghai Composite. A reminder that the FXI is covered in every edition of my Monthly ETF Snapshot, along with 20 other popular, high volume ETFs. The Monthly ETF Snapshot is only 20$/month, and you can view the January issue by reply to the email that delivered this video with something along the lines of Monthly ETF Snapshot. So with let. Let’s move on to the Shanghai Index analysis.

I don’t want to confuse the video analysis by drawing too strong a comparison between the underlying Shanghai index and the FXI, for if you look at the side-by-side comparison you can see the ETF has actually violated last August’s move low, something the Shanghai Index has yet to do. Page 5 of my January Monthly ETF Snapshot indicates that a January FXI settlement below 33.29 would signal 27.33 over the next several months, quite possibly by the end of February. However, in my opinion the FXI ETF is not considered an entirely reliable precursor to Shanghai composite price activity, for ETF’s contain inherent structural elements that allow for exaggerated price moves.

Also, I know that most of you are watching this video for a sense of intermarket correlation between the broader US stock market and the Shanghai composite index, so I think we’d both agree that following the Shanghai index and its relation to important price support levels may provide a greater correlation for US stock market behavior as we look ahead to the 2nd Qtr.

So with that said, as I also mentioned in an August, 2015 video that still remains on YouTube, a long-term two thirds speed line projected off the 2008 low found at 2940.71 for the month of January, can contain selling into later 2016. In other words, despite all the financial press hyperbole, this market is once again merely approaching long-term support.

Nonetheless, a January settlement in the Shanghai composite below 2940.71 would then signal a February test of the 2493.02, seven-year channel bottom – also able to absorb selling through 2016 and a meaningful downside tipping point over the same time horizon.

While not anticipated between now and the end of the 2nd Qtr, a monthly settlement below the 2468.81 channel bottom, rising to 2493.02 in February, 25 17.23 in March, and to 2541.44 in April, would maintain an aggressively bearish dynamic into later year, a retest of the 1664.93, October 2008 low than expected within 3-5 months, the index vulnerable to continuing south into the 600 handle over the following 8-12 months, price levels not visited since 1996. Once again, this bearish scenario is not one that I expect, but I think it’s worth outlining, for this event would likely trigger a similar bear market in the SP-500.

To recap, the 2940.71 speed-line can absorb selling into later year, this indicator rising to 2955.37 in February, 29 70.04 in March, into 2984.70 in April, above which a stable to bullish dynamic continues into the second quarter, with recovery expected over the next several months into the 3539.26 region, essentially the December monthly settlement price, able to absorb monthly buying pressures, with a settlement above likely indicating a good low into mid-year, the August 2015, 4006.33 high then expected within 1-2 more months, also able to contain monthly buying pressures when tested and a meiangful upside recovery point through the balance of 2016. To recap the downside scenario, longer-term selling pressures really don’t emerge unless we place a monthly settlement below the 7-year channel bottom currently at 2493.02, this scenario covered a few moments ago.

Please email or call me with any questions you might have regarding my full assortment of advisory publications, and please stay tuned for continued market analysis videos. I’m Cary Artac, and thanks for watching.

10 Dec

Live Cattle Futures Mid To Long-Term Analysis, Dec 2015

Live Cattle Video, Dec 2015 from Cary Artac on Vimeo.

The text below is the verbatim text for the video below. I’d recommend watching the video for greater visual context.

This video recorded Thursday, December 10, 2015. It examines the mid to long-term dynamic currently playing out in the live cattle futures market. For those of you who trade or even watch this market, you’re probably well aware of the fact that after an aggressive five year rally from 2009 to 14, the Live Cattle market has since the November 2014 high been in a relative freefall state. The old adage what comes up must come down certainly applies here, with the current selloff angle being a symmetrical reflection of the preceding rally. Oftentimes the church steeple rally manages to give up 80% or more of the preceding gains, though if you measure the gains from the 2009 lows when the accelerated portion of this rally began, I think the 5/8’s to 2/3 downside retracement is a respectable enough support region to absorb the brunt of the downside correction looking ahead to 2016 and beyond. More importantly, this support region is consistent with several long-term chart formations I’ll be showing you in a moment that are found on both the traditional monthly continuation chart and the more commonly used, volume-based active monthly continuation chart. I could spend 10 minutes explaining the difference between the two continuation chart data configurations, and how I combined the two in my analysis, but to keep this video to the point I’ll refrain from doing so. But I will say that, very simply, the traditional monthly continuation chart maintains the front contract until it expires completely on the last trading day, regardless of whether or not it’s the most active contract. I call this a traditional continuation chart because it is the format used for many decades by pencil and ruler technicians until recent decades, when the increasing computerization of market data allowed for a more customized rollover on the continuation charts, resulting in what is now the more common active continuation chart, whereby the most active, high-volume contract is always reflected on the long-term continuation chart, this despite the fact the front contract is still in existence. I personally lean more on the volume-based rollover charts for determining my technical levels, but I still methodically consult the traditional rollover charts knowing there remains a respectable number of institutions and traders who continue to use it in their analysis.

So with that said, we’ll examine both charts, and if you’re new to this you’ll have to stick with me here for it gets a bit complicated with the numbers as we jump back and forth between the two different chart-types. First let’s take a look live cattle’s traditional monthly continuation chart, which as of this early December recording continues to reflect the December 2015 contract activity and not the higher volume February 2016 contract. The December 2015 contract is roughly 5.50 basis points lower in value than the active February 2016 contract. The spread between the Dec and February contracts fluctuates continuously, and so if you’re to execute a trade in the active February contract based on support shown on this traditional continuation chart, you’ll need to make constant note of December price activity in relation to its price support levels. In other words, this traditional monthly continuation chart shows, for the month of December, a gradual convergence between a former 35 year ascending channel top at 115.00 and a 20 year channel bottom projected off the 1996 low at 111.350. This is considered a significant range of long-term support for the December contract, which will remain on this chart until that contract expires on December 31, 2015, at which point the February 2016 contract will replace it. But at this early December juncture, the 111.350-115.000 region equates to a February contract 116.85 – 120.50 price support region, one that will change in lockstep with the spread between the Dec and Feb contracts. In the month of January these formations rise to 111.825-115.100, and once the February contract occupies this chart on the first trading day in January, the February contract will then show long-term support in the 111.825-115.100 region. These formations are rising and narrowing as we proceed into spring trade, and if you pause this video you can see where those numbers fall through June 2016. This is considered significant long-term support for the lead live cattle futures market, so that when the February contract expires on February 29th, it will then be replaced by the April contract, and once that expires on April 29, the June contract will inherit this support region.

Now let’s move on to the more commonly used volume-based, active monthly continuation chart, and because the February 2016 contract is the most active, it is currently reflected on that chart. Long-term support here is not altogether different, as the 35 year former channel top comes in at 113.325 for the month of December, and the rising 20 year channel bottom at 114.675. These formations are also rising on a monthly basis, and if you pause the video you can see the exact support levels through June 2016.

Given the recently heightened whipsaw activity followed by continued lower monthly settlements, I do think this market is, shall I say, destined to continue south into the 111.825 – 113.325 region over the next 5-8 months, this ranged rising gradually and determined by incorporating both the traditional and volume-based monthly continuation charts shown a moment ago. As of this early December recording I’m referring to February contract support. One thing you can be sure of, I make these chart and spread calculations in ongoing fashion and they are continuously reflected in both my Daily Live Cattle futures analysis and my Monthly Futures Wrap, of which Live Cattle analysis is a regular component.

On a more near to midterm basis, we have a fairly well-defined descending channel structure on the weekly active continuation chart at 120.475 for the week of Monday, Dec 7th, dropping at 0.600 point per week, and representing respectable mid-term support able to contain monthly selling pressures as we look ahead into later winter and next spring. For all intents and purposes, this support is best defined on a weekly or daily chart, for the rate of descent is too steep to provide reliable monthly chart support – a topic I’ll avoid altogether for the sake of brevity. If you are a subscriber to my Daily Live Cattle futures letters you’ll certainly be made aware of the location of this intermediate support, and if we settle below it on a weekly basis the long-term support structures I showed earlier in the 111.825 – 113.325 region would be expected within 1-2 months.

Let’s take a look at the upside scenarios, and when the current one year freefall should not only stabilize, but quite possibly reverse into next summer. For the week of Monday, Dec 7th we have a channel top currently at 140.775 that forms the start of a range of midterm resistance up to 144.025 able to contain monthly if not quarterly buying pressures, once tested the market then susceptible to rotating south again to the channel base that I previously illustrated at 120.475. However, if or when the active contract settles a weekly session above this 144.025 formation, dropping at 0.525 a week, the one year bear market will have completed itself, with recovery then expected within several months into the mid-150.00’s, an event that would be well covered in my daily live cattle futures letters and Monthly Futures Wrap.

In summary, as of this early December recording, resistance in the 140.775-144.025 region can contain quarterly buying pressures when tested, below which the 111.825-113.325 region remains a 5-8 month target. On the way down, channel support at 120.475 can contain monthly selling when tested, yet a weekly settlement below this formation indicates the targeted 111.825-113.325 region within 1-2 months, long-term support able to contain selling through 2016 – perhaps the balance of the decade.

Despite the somewhat complicated description of the two different continuation chart data configurations I hope you found this Live Cattle market information useful, and if you’d like a two week free trial in my daily live cattle futures letters or would like to take a look at the current issue of my Monthly Futures Wrap just shoot me an email or visit my website and fill out the free trial form. Within hours you have access to the current material and for the next 14 days, no questions asked. Stay tuned for future market analysis videos. I’m Cary Artac, and thanks for watching.

10 YEAR US Treasury Note
02 Nov

10 YEAR US Treasury Note

The embedded video will update you on the mid to longer-term technical structure currently playing out in the 10YR US T-Note futures. This market is regularly covered in my Monthly Futures Wrap, with the current October 2015 issue depicting a long-term, 7-year ascending channel-bottom presently at 124.250 that has held repeatedly over the last 18 months of trade. This long-term formation encapsulates the descending trend in longer-term interest rates since the 2008 financial implosion, one that continues so long as monthly settlements above the 124.250 formation remain a fact.

A simple trendline off the 2012 and early 2015 highs, currently at 129.315, managed to hold October highs, thus forming a narrowing wedge between it and the 124.250 channel-bottom. Holding below the 129.31.5 trend line – dropping to 129.270 in November, and to 129.225 in December – allows a retest over the next 3-5 months of the 124.250 channel-bottom, a formation capable of containing selling through 2016.

While not expected between now and the end of the year, a monthly settlement below the 124.250 formation, which rises to 124.300 in November, and to 125.030 in December, would signal a continued collapse into the 117.00 – 118.225 region over the following 8-12 months, an event that in my opinion would also run parallel with a series of Fed rate hikes, the 117.00 – 118.225 region able to absorb selling through the balance of the decade and a meaningful downside inflection point over the same time horizon.

That essentially covers the mid to longer-term downside scenarios. Given the continued state of a longer-term bull market above the 124.250 region, an upside violation over the next 3-5 months of 129.315 trendline resistance remains the more probable scenario. This trendline drops to 129.270 in November, and to 129.225 in December, with a monthly settlement above indicating upward continuation over the following 2-3 months into the 132.095 region, able to contain strength through 2016 and a meaningful upside acceleration point over the same time horizon. Meaning: a monthly settlement above the 132.095 channel-top, rising to 132.135 in November and to 132.175 in December, would indicate not only a retest within 3-5 months of the 135.155, 2012 high, but more than likely 12-18 months bullish continuation into the 140.250-141.25 region, this event likely to run parallel with a depressed interest rate environment likely to involve continued economic challenges within China, Europe, and even the US.

Stay tuned for more market analysis blogs and videos. They should become a weekly event by early 2016.