Hi, I’m Cary Artac, founder and chief analyst of Artac Advisory. Thanks for watching this video, recorded Thursday, February 4, 2016, which addresses the mid to long-term technical outlook in the CBOT Corn futures markets. So you know, I analyze this market on a daily basis through my Daily Corn letter. This market’s long-term outlook is also covered in every issue of my Monthly Futures Wrap, providing detailed mid to long-term analysis in over 20 popular US futures markets. If you’d like a two week free trial in either or both letters merely reply fill out the free trial form on my website (www.ArtacAdvisory.com)
This volume-based rollover continuation chart captures the corn futures market from essentially the August 2012 high to the present first week of February 2016, and as of this recording reflects the March, 2016 contract. In a few weeks the July 2016 contract will possess the greater corn complex volume, and at that point will be the contract reflected on this chart. In other words, the forecasted levels provided in this video can be used for your July contract trading and hedging, though my suggestion would be that, a month or two from now, you should tune into my Daily July Corn letter or the MFR for continued clarity.
Following the two-year sell off on the heels of the August 2012 high, we have for the last 18 months been floundering between the 318.25 to 454.25 extremes. With the exception of last summer’s short-lived rally, the majority of the last 18 months can be characterized as low volatility congestion. A noteworthy development over this time horizon has been a November 2015 sell signal below an ascending channel bottom currently at 389.25 for the month of February, setting up what I consider to be a 3 to 5 month downside objective to 309.50, a 10-year horizontal channel formation, formed by projecting the angle of the 2008 and 2012 highs off the 2005 low. My very recent nearer-term analysis illustrated on a daily corn letter shows a 2-3 week buy signal currently at play above the mid 360.00’s, the 389.25 – 393.75 region in reach over the next several weeks. Nonetheless, it should be noted that given the longer-term bearish dynamic below 389.25 – 393.75 this near-term rally is prone to failure. In a nutshell, not until we post a weekly settlement above the 389.25 – 393.75 region can we expect a bullish environment into late spring / early summer, for holding below 389.25 maintains a heavy dynamic over this time horizon, long-term support at 309.50 a realistic summer 2016 target where the broader Corn complex can bottom out not only for the year, but also the balance of the decade.
This heavy long-term dynamic does neutralize following a weekly settlement above the 389.25 – 393.75 region, these formations gradually changing in value as we push into spring trade. In a nutshell, a buy signal settlement above the 389.25 – 393.75 formations indicates 3-5 months bullish continuation into the 468.25 – 471.00 region, where the Corn market can top out into next year. This upper area also represents a significant upside acceleration point, with a weekly settlement above the 468.25 – 471.00 formations likely to elicit an accelerated bullish tempo not unlike that of the 2008 and 2010 rallies. But were not there yet; and if so you can bet I’ll reach out with another video outlining big-picture upside objectives.
Please stay tuned for other upcoming market advisory videos. I’m Cary Artac, and thanks for watching.