Monthly Archives: February 2016

07 Feb

Corn Futures Analysis Video

Hi, I’m Cary Artac, founder and chief analyst of Artac Advisory. Thanks for watching this video, recorded Thursday, February 4, 2016, which addresses the mid to long-term technical outlook in the CBOT Corn futures markets. So you know, I analyze this market on a daily basis through my Daily Corn letter. This market’s long-term outlook is also covered in every issue of my Monthly Futures Wrap, providing detailed mid to long-term analysis in over 20 popular US futures markets. If you’d like a two week free trial in either or both letters merely reply fill out the free trial form on my website (www.ArtacAdvisory.com)

This volume-based rollover continuation chart captures the corn futures market from essentially the August 2012 high to the present first week of February 2016, and as of this recording reflects the March, 2016 contract. In a few weeks the July 2016 contract will possess the greater corn complex volume, and at that point will be the contract reflected on this chart. In other words, the forecasted levels provided in this video can be used for your July contract trading and hedging, though my suggestion would be that, a month or two from now, you should tune into my Daily July Corn letter or the MFR for continued clarity.

Following the two-year sell off on the heels of the August 2012 high, we have for the last 18 months been floundering between the 318.25 to 454.25 extremes. With the exception of last summer’s short-lived rally, the majority of the last 18 months can be characterized as low volatility congestion. A noteworthy development over this time horizon has been a November 2015 sell signal below an ascending channel bottom currently at 389.25 for the month of February, setting up what I consider to be a 3 to 5 month downside objective to 309.50, a 10-year horizontal channel formation, formed by projecting the angle of the 2008 and 2012 highs off the 2005 low. My very recent nearer-term analysis illustrated on a daily corn letter shows a 2-3 week buy signal currently at play above the mid 360.00’s, the 389.25 – 393.75 region in reach over the next several weeks. Nonetheless, it should be noted that given the longer-term bearish dynamic below 389.25 – 393.75 this near-term rally is prone to failure. In a nutshell, not until we post a weekly settlement above the 389.25 – 393.75 region can we expect a bullish environment into late spring / early summer, for holding below 389.25 maintains a heavy dynamic over this time horizon, long-term support at 309.50 a realistic summer 2016 target where the broader Corn complex can bottom out not only for the year, but also the balance of the decade.

This heavy long-term dynamic does neutralize following a weekly settlement above the 389.25 – 393.75 region, these formations gradually changing in value as we push into spring trade. In a nutshell, a buy signal settlement above the 389.25 – 393.75 formations indicates 3-5 months bullish continuation into the 468.25 – 471.00 region, where the Corn market can top out into next year. This upper area also represents a significant upside acceleration point, with a weekly settlement above the 468.25 – 471.00 formations likely to elicit an accelerated bullish tempo not unlike that of the 2008 and 2010 rallies. But were not there yet; and if so you can bet I’ll reach out with another video outlining big-picture upside objectives.

Please stay tuned for other upcoming market advisory videos. I’m Cary Artac, and thanks for watching.

SP-500 Mid To Long-Term Analysis
01 Feb

SP-500 Mid To Long-Term Analysis

SP-500 Futures Analysis – January 2016 from Cary Artac on Vimeo.

Thanks for watching this video, recorded Wednsday, January 20, 2016, which addresses the mid to long-term technical outlook for the SP-500 futures market. So you know, this market is covered in my both daily SP-500 futures letter and in every issue of my Monthly Futures Wrap, providing detailed mid to long-term analysis in over 20 other popular US futures markets. The Monthly Futures Wrap is only $30.00/month, and if you’d like a two week free trial it or my daily sp-500 futures letter merely reply to the email that delivered this video with some sort of an affirmative response. I’ll be happy to set you up immediately; I’ll then follow-up 2 weeks later to inquire into your possible subscription interest. Now, on to the SP-500 futures market:

A little backdrop that most of my long-term subscribers are familiar with. Back in Feb of 2013 a long-term, 3-5 year buy signal emerged following a monthly settlement above a decade long horizontal channel formation then at 1502.50, now at 1456.50 for the month of January 2016, this buy signal indicating a doubling of this formation over the following 3-5 years to what I term: the double channel extension – currently at 2355.00 for the month of January. We’re just about 3 years into this 3-5 year buy signal, and as you’re well aware we have, for the last 18 months or so, been locked in a congestive, two-sided pattern, characterized by many weeks of directionless, low-volatility trade punctuated with an occasional downward spike – usually caused by an international scare, the most notable being an Oct 2014 west African Ebola virus, and most recently indications of a slowing Chinese economy.

The dynamic through 2016 remains bullish above two formations. The first we tested a week ago, that is the 2nd week of January, at 1864.00. This monthly channel bottom spans nearly 7 years of upward activity. Anyone who subscribes to my Daily SP-500 futures letter know that I use the more focused weekly chart formation, but I’m using the monthly chart in this video so the analysis you’re viewing retains a certain degree of relevance into the later 1st qtr 2016. Continued monthly settlements above the 1864.00 formation, which rises to 1879.75 in Feb, and to 1895.25 in Mar, should yield upward retracement over the next 2-3 months into the 2117.50 – 2148.50 region, these horizontal formations changing to 2121.25 – 2150.25 in Feb, and to 2124.75 – 2152.00 in March, able to absorb quarterly buying pressures when tested, and a meaningful upside continuation region into later 2016. In a nutshell, a monthly or even weekly settlement above the 2150.25 formation indicates a test within 5-8 months of the long-term 2355.00 target illustrated earlier in this video.

Downside, a monthly or even weekly settlement below the 1864.00 formation indicates a continued collapse over the following 3-5 weeks, possibly within 1-2 weeks, to the long-term 1/3 speedline projected off the 2009 low, currently at 1751.00 for the month of January. Any long-term subscribers are familiar with my preference for speedline analysis in long-term trend identification. Essentially, holding above the 1/3 ascending speedline maintains the upward thrust of a long-term bull trend. This indicator is capable of containing selling not only through 2016, but also through the balance of the decade, above which the 2355.00 long-term objective remains an 18-24 month reality. On the other hand, a monthly settlement below the 1751.00 speedline, which rises to 1764.25 in Feb, and to 1777.50 in Mar would tip the SP-500 into a 1-2 year bear trend, the 1586.75, 2007 high then expected within several months, the 1456.50 formation within 8-12 months, and potentially the 2/3 speed line currently at 1209.25 within 12-18 months. You can be sure that a monthly settlement below the 1751.00 speedline, something I do not expect in 2016, would nevertheless inspire me to record another SP-500 video updating you on these downside objectives.

That’s about it, please call or email with questions, and please stay tuned for futures analysis videos. I’m Cary Artac, and thanks for watching.

Shanghai Composite Index mid to long-term technical analysis
01 Feb

Shanghai Composite Index mid to long-term technical analysis

Shanghai Composite Analysis January 2016 from Cary Artac on Vimeo.

The video above was recorded on Tuesday, January 12, 2015 examines the Shanghai composite index. The text below is essentially the exact verbiage you’ll hear in the video. The Shanghai has once again grabbed front page financial headlines over the last week or two following less than stellar manufacturing data out of China, sending the index back into price territory not traded since last September, which has helped drag the US market down in similar fashion. I’ll also be taking a brief look at the FXI, the ishares China large-cap ETF, a rough tradable equivalent to the Shanghai Composite. A reminder that the FXI is covered in every edition of my Monthly ETF Snapshot, along with 20 other popular, high volume ETFs. The Monthly ETF Snapshot is only 20$/month, and you can view the January issue by reply to the email that delivered this video with something along the lines of Monthly ETF Snapshot. So with let. Let’s move on to the Shanghai Index analysis.

I don’t want to confuse the video analysis by drawing too strong a comparison between the underlying Shanghai index and the FXI, for if you look at the side-by-side comparison you can see the ETF has actually violated last August’s move low, something the Shanghai Index has yet to do. Page 5 of my January Monthly ETF Snapshot indicates that a January FXI settlement below 33.29 would signal 27.33 over the next several months, quite possibly by the end of February. However, in my opinion the FXI ETF is not considered an entirely reliable precursor to Shanghai composite price activity, for ETF’s contain inherent structural elements that allow for exaggerated price moves.

Also, I know that most of you are watching this video for a sense of intermarket correlation between the broader US stock market and the Shanghai composite index, so I think we’d both agree that following the Shanghai index and its relation to important price support levels may provide a greater correlation for US stock market behavior as we look ahead to the 2nd Qtr.

So with that said, as I also mentioned in an August, 2015 video that still remains on YouTube, a long-term two thirds speed line projected off the 2008 low found at 2940.71 for the month of January, can contain selling into later 2016. In other words, despite all the financial press hyperbole, this market is once again merely approaching long-term support.

Nonetheless, a January settlement in the Shanghai composite below 2940.71 would then signal a February test of the 2493.02, seven-year channel bottom – also able to absorb selling through 2016 and a meaningful downside tipping point over the same time horizon.

While not anticipated between now and the end of the 2nd Qtr, a monthly settlement below the 2468.81 channel bottom, rising to 2493.02 in February, 25 17.23 in March, and to 2541.44 in April, would maintain an aggressively bearish dynamic into later year, a retest of the 1664.93, October 2008 low than expected within 3-5 months, the index vulnerable to continuing south into the 600 handle over the following 8-12 months, price levels not visited since 1996. Once again, this bearish scenario is not one that I expect, but I think it’s worth outlining, for this event would likely trigger a similar bear market in the SP-500.

To recap, the 2940.71 speed-line can absorb selling into later year, this indicator rising to 2955.37 in February, 29 70.04 in March, into 2984.70 in April, above which a stable to bullish dynamic continues into the second quarter, with recovery expected over the next several months into the 3539.26 region, essentially the December monthly settlement price, able to absorb monthly buying pressures, with a settlement above likely indicating a good low into mid-year, the August 2015, 4006.33 high then expected within 1-2 more months, also able to contain monthly buying pressures when tested and a meiangful upside recovery point through the balance of 2016. To recap the downside scenario, longer-term selling pressures really don’t emerge unless we place a monthly settlement below the 7-year channel bottom currently at 2493.02, this scenario covered a few moments ago.

Please email or call me with any questions you might have regarding my full assortment of advisory publications, and please stay tuned for continued market analysis videos. I’m Cary Artac, and thanks for watching.